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Sydney Real Estate
Sydney is the state capital of New South Wales, located on the east coast of Australia. The city was established in 1788 when Arthur Phillip and the First Fleet landed in Sydney Cove and claimed Australia for the British. With a metropolitan population of well over 4.5 million people, it is the most populous city in the country (with about 20% of the total population).
Built around Port Jackson, which is often considered one of the most beautiful harbours in the world, Sydney is known in Australia as the "Harbour City" and the "City of Lights" and the harbour itself as well as structures on its shores such as the Sydney Opera House and the Sydney Harbour Bridge are globally recognised icons of the city. Sydney is a major domestic and international tourist destination, notable for its climate, famous beaches, culture, renowned landmarks and modern architecture. It is Australia's main financial centre , and the many skyscrapers of its financial district cluster around Circular Quay, making the city's skyline one of the most distinctive in the world.
Sydney significantly raised its global profile in recent years as the host city of the 2000 Olympics. It is a "Beta" global city exerting significant regional, national, and international influence.
Sydney property investment has benefited more than anywhere else from Australia's housing boom, with prices almost doubling over the past few years. Economists now predict it will be among the first to suffer as rates head north and consumer spending heads south.
Words like "solid" and "steady" have replaced "booming" and "frenzied" in descriptions of Sydney's housing market.
Given Sydney's high house prices - and heavy burden of household debt - rising home loan interest rates remain the key to housing price changes in 2006. Analysts say it will be a buyers' market this year with further moderation in the rate of house price growth.
Latest Update
Sydney house prices peaked in mid 2003. Since then, the rate of house price growth has slowed.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics house price index - regarded as the most accurate overall measure of market activity - shows that Sydney's established house prices rose up a respectable 16. per cent over year to September.
The latest Real Estate Institute of Australia figures tell a similar story, with Sydney's median house price rising 1.1 per cent over the September quarter to $470,000.
But that reflected the boom of early 2003. In the September quarter, the Bureau of Statistics says, Sydney's established house prices rose by just 2.2 per cent. And in the month of November, more recent figures show, NSW housing loan approvals fell by three per cent. Lending to investors was down almost 13 per cent. All that suggests rising rates have started to bite.
Looking Ahead ...
Despite the slowing house price growth, Sydney is less affordable than ever.
Sydney's average house price is now more than $500,000 and mortgage repayments are $33,500 a year, putting home ownership further out of reach for most first-time buyers.
The Commonwealth Bank/Housing Industry Association September quarter Housing Affordability Index shows that buying a home in Australia's biggest city has never been more difficult.
According to the report, monthly loan repayments needed to service a typical first-home mortgage in Sydney jumped $257 to $2795 over the quarter. This was equivalent of 46 per cent of average household incomes.
As the median house price hit $515,1000 (up almost $120,000 over the year), housing affordability in Sydney slumped 9.5 per cent in the quarter to be 22 per cent worse than a year ago.
Nationally, housing affordability fell 9.4 per cent in the quarter to be 22.5 per cent lower than a year ago and at a new record low.
Projections
Louis Christopher of Australian Property Monitors recently predicted Sydney and Melbourne would cop the full force of the rate-induced slowdown.
While home owners in other parts of the country could look forward to steady gains over 2006, Sydney and Melbourne home owners and investors faced a property bust if interest rates rose a further one percent from now.
"What has happened in property in Sydney is that prices have been pushed up so high and so fast that the return you can get on your property is almost non-existent," Mr Christopher told The West Australian newspaper.
Economic analysts Access Economics say states like NSW that have gained most from the housing boom will also be those which suffer more when interest rates head north and consumer spending heads south.
In its September Business Outlook Report, Access Economics says any rate increases will have leave consumers with less money available to spend.
"Sydney is awash in housing debt and runs the risk of a rougher ride on the tail of the cycle if interest rates rise early and more than marginally. Housing starts peaked in late 2002 and while the housing investment is still strong, it will fall away during 2006."
Independent analysts Herron Todd White noted in their recent Month in Review newsletter: "After a strong performance from the residential market in the past two to three years, the gloss is starting to fade and investors are looking at higher yielding alternatives such as commercial property and the sharemarket. However even with demand slowing, there are still residential developments popping up all over Sydney."
Top Performing Suburbs
Agents report strong interest in Sydney's outer suburbs as buyers migrate towards higher-yielding, lower-priced properties. Hot spots include Camperdown and Mt Druitt.
At the top end of the market, a shortage of quality properties and strong buyer interest is ensuring continued strong price growth in suburbs like Double Bay, Bondi and Mosman.
Prices are also rocketing in some regional and coastal areas. Hot spots include Grenfell, Broken Hill, Whale Beach, Tweed Heads, Cowra, Forbes and Sussex Inlet.
Leafy Killara on Sydney's upper north shore is tipped as one boom suburb. The area's ageing population and large store of quality housing in leafy, manicured streets make it a top pick for young professionals and families.
Sydney Property Market Overview to 2006
Sydney's high housing costs mean buyers are most likely to respond to the November and December increases in home loan interest rate.
ANZ's latest Property Outlook report predicts a pronounced slowdown in growth over the coming year rather than a sharp correction.
Many property analysts suggest that Sydney house prices are over-valued by around 18 per cent. This does not mean we expect prices to decline by 18 per cent but that prices will be under considerable pressure in the years ahead and are unlikely to outperform other markets for a considerable period of time . . . However given steady incomes growth and only moderate increases in interest rates, annual growth in Sydney house prices is most probably going to slow to a much lower but still reasonable four to six per cent by the end of 2005."
Residex forecasts growth in house prices in Sydney's western suburbs will slow, and possibly stagnate, over the next three years. By contrast, the lower north shore, northern beaches and inner Sydney will experience annual growth of up to 16 per cent over the same period.
"It's not a collapsing market but the frenzy won't be there and people will be more conscious of what they're buying," says Macquarie Bank's head of property research, Rod Cornish.
As the property boom slows, analysts say buyers should look for established character houses in the inner west. Sydney's land shortage makes any larger than average block worth considering.
Thanks to http://www.propertyinvestmentplanning.com.au/sydney.htm for this fine article
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